The pattern of future investments in primary aluminum is following closely the future energy context.

Until a few years ago, most smelters operated or were being built within a stable, predictable energy context: Integrated power, or benefiting of a favorable “power island” (region where excess power is and will remain available), or stable contractual environment. General energy shortage plus escalation of energy costs is changing this. Each investment decision, even a modest revamping, is conditioned by some kind of renegotiation or development of energy supply. This smelter invests $50 million because its contract was renegotiated. This greenfield project is on hold because the local government delays decisions regarding energy supply, and the investor is favoring another country where energy plans are moving faster; the owner of these two old smelters – scroll down and seek ‘new base-load’ manages to secure energy until 2036, which will now facilitate various revampings; this greenfield keeps being delayed – scroll down and seek ‘halted construction’ because new questions on energy supplies delays financing; a major extension of this old smelter has eternally been delayed because of producer/government disputes regarding an integrated power plant, and we read now that the dispute is finally solved. Meanwhile, in this faraway land, a government decision – scroll down and seek ‘nations to develop’ - to engage the planet’s largest hydropower project ever will condition the whole future of several greenfields in a region which, only ten years ago, was still considered as a “power island” with massive, unused energy capacity.
Introducing an improvement on the CIF Matrix: Subscribers, when reading CIF, note that the most probable and major investment projects are now highlighted in light blue to facilitate focusing.