Some smelters are going to invest. Some greenfield projects stay the course. Market perspectives justify investments despite the metal glut…

This report explains very well why, despite the metal glut in LME inventories, the industry must prepare for an important increase in demand. It also gives a list of investment projects on the agenda today, and you will be reassured to see that it matches quite well our forecast in our Capacity & Investment Forecast Model (CIF Matrix), accessible to our subscribers. This report completes it, explaining more in detail how the metal glut will be absorbed within 18 months. This report discusses an energy-generation mega-project which will serve the needs of two and may be three greenfield smelters. This smelter has been waiting for its major extension for decades and the project was dormant because of political disputes. It seems to be on the move again. Here is another megaproject illustrating again that future aluminum capacity investments will be built on the model integrating in one entity energy generation and smelting. We predicted the come back of this model years ago. This old and solid, healthy smelter is silently improving its energy supply again thanks to investments of the metal producer, which will allow a new potline effective within 2 years. This conglomerate in energy and mining is negotiating the sale of its excellent smelter. (Scroll way down) To whom? In this country who should be a new aluminum producer in 2015, public hearings have begun. Rusal has succeeded its IPO but guess who is the leading investor? Here is another country who might within a few years have shut down all its smelters , and here is a smelter who was waiting for its extension, had given up, and is seriously reconsidered. Our guess is its extension will produce metal in 2013.