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Tuesday, November 03, 2009

The outlook for primary aluminum keeps slowly improving…

Here is a smelter which took ages to build because this country was determined to utilize as much as possible internal resources and a technology politically more acceptable to their spiritual leaders. It is now completed after years of slow construction during each potline was built and started by small steps. It is a side by side, prebaked anode smelter. Meanwhile, this leading aluminum producer tells how it will manage a loss of six million dollars in 2008; and this small one – scroll way down - may restart a smelter which was considered as finally shutdown, because the LME prices forecast has turned more favorable: good news for the industry. And this smelter, which doesn’t often make the news but is silently doing a good job - scroll way down - will change hands and be able to undertake major investments. This country was for 4 decades an example of low cost, clean excess energy. - scroll down - It is going to change, due to a new tax policy, which is bad news for a greenfield presently in progress. This report underlines how China penetrates more and more the African market of aluminum and energy mega-projects. At home, the Chinese government opposes any extra capacity increase because metal production is running well under available capacity but this local aluminum producer plans, nevertheless, a one million tonne greenfield! And in India, another major greenfield with integrated power appears on our Capacity & Investment Forecast Matrix.

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Since 1991 ENAL has operated a Delphi Panel of Experts participating as Panelists, to forecast future investments. The ENAL Newsletter is possible thanks to this panel.