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Thursday, June 25, 2009

More light at the end of the tunnel for primary aluminum.

The primary aluminum industry is showing signs that the end of the recession is not that far. Click here for a full report. LME prices seem to have hit the bottom and trends are encouraging for good reasons. Some of these long term trends, lead by one specific application of light metals (click here for another detailed report), will play a major part.
This country is a major metal producer and is about to decide deregulating its energy market. One country prepares with Chinese help a colossal, integrated industrial zone including a smelter, which will utilize hydro energy already in full development.
This other country is moving ahead in preparing a major hydro investment geared at future greenfields. And this other country decides finally to move ahead on an integrated energy/aluminum project which will be their first entry in the industry.
This aluminum producer decides not to delay his most immediate greenfield project. This other country will launch a bit less than 6 Terawatts of energy capacity mainly to serve the aluminum industry, including new greenfields. This aluminum producer restarts some idled capacity, and this one - click here and scroll way down - plans to double capacity within 5 years, and begins with adding power capacity to its integrated plant. And this producer succeeds in concluding an agreement for the renewal of its energy supply under favorable terms. A fascinating saga keeps developing in Europe around this smelter due to shut down unless it is saved at the last minute by either of two options – scroll way down for a comprehensive update - to create or refit energy capacity.
As well, click here and scroll way down to read the 5 decades story of this small country, now a major producer, who has gone full circle from cheap excess energy to facing difficult decisions arbitraging between aluminum strategy and local needs of the energy market, leading him to a decision regarding capacity expansion.

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Since 1991 ENAL has operated a Delphi Panel of Experts participating as Panelists, to forecast future investments. The ENAL Newsletter is possible thanks to this panel.